Saturday, February 03, 2007

I would like to suggest something to pivotal figures in the American anti-war movement.

I believe we must invent a new set of tactics if we wish to accomplish the goal of effectively ending the war in Iraq.

The situation seems to have developed to a point beyond the power of conventional politics to address. We have a steadily growing sectarian war, rooted in the same tit-for-tat exchanges that characterize the bloodiest long-term conflicts. Many Americans (and Iraqis) fear the possibility of even bloodier ethnic conflict. To this we might respond that our presence in Iraq only makes things worse, and leaving is still the best thing we can do. I will go futher though: we will not leave, precisely because it risks total regional destabilization. And while humanitarian sentiment might make we opposed to the war hesitate in our chosen action, the fear of regional destabilization will certainly prevent mainstream political leaders from withdrawing.

They won't stay in Iraq out of humanitarian fears. If the entire region destabilizes, oil supply will deteriorate immediately and we will find ourselves at the head of one of the worst recessions possible, probably even a depression.

The industrial world such as it currently is cannot afford major political destabilization in the main oil-producing nations. If major oil supplies are cut off suddenly, our society will grind down to a slow crawl.

I don't mean to suggest that we must stay in Iraq until the government improves the situation. I don't believe that they can. The tremendous infrastructural shortfalls stemming from both absurd policy from the Bush administration and systemic corruption from reconstruction contractors make this unlikely. That ethnic clashes have begun in earnest in Iraq makes this unikely. Even the most enlightened federal policy in insufficient now.

I am saying that if we opposed to the war want the war to end, we must throw out the old playbook and develop an autonomous strategy.

Yet we must do more than the conventional fare of oppositional politics. Marches will not end this.

We must build a movement capable of performing the very function it demands- brokering some sort of peace and withdrawal.

If our government has failed to build the infrastructure of peace, we must do so ourselves, bit by bit.

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